Sunday, September 5, 2010

Dabbling in the odds a bit


It's always easier to tell the story after the fact but you'll just have to trust me this one time. Going forward I'll make it a weekly staple to put my picks out before the weekend begins.

College football got underway this past Thursday so I logged in to the old sportsbook account and made a small deposit to get things started. Looking at the Thursday lines I liked Ohio State at home minus 4 TD's, I liked the Golden Gophers on the road -1.5 and I loved the under on the NIU at Iowa State game. Good MAC team returning 11 starters on defense against a bad BCS conf team smelled like under 51 to me. I added the Gamecocks ML (-700) as a small boost and parlayed the selections. Open the season with a WINNER! All 4 selections good and away we go. Stayed up for the late game on ESPN, USC at Hawaii, bet the 2nd half over at 28.5. BAM! 2nd winner of the night.

Small wager on Friday night took Arizona -16 at Toledo but parlayed it with the over (59). Zona wins by a boatload but Toledo can't score so the total stays under. On to Saturday, out until about 11:15am running errands so I missed the early kickoffs. I looked over the entire day and decided I liked LSU -9 vs UNC, Wisconsin -20 at UNLV and Fresno St -3 at home vs Cincinnati. 1 win, Fresno State, 1 Push, Wisconsin, and 1 Loss, LSU. I had it parlayed so it was only bet lost. After watching the 1st halves of the Michigan and Notre Dame games I made a 2nd half line wager on those two games, Michigan pk em, ND -4. 1 win, Michigan, and 1 loss, Notre Dame.

No betting weekend would be complete without a story of a bad beat so here's mine. I liked the under(50) in the Oregon State vs TCU game. Neutral site but in Texas, TCU built their reputation last season on playing defense. Felt good! 35 points scored in the 1st half. All good feelings gone but having done this before knew that there was a chance this game stalls in the 2nd half and I still have a chance. Bingo! TD early in the 3rd and a 2nd TD to end the 3rd. TCU is up 7 and plays 'D' in the 4th. About 8:30 to go OSU and TCU have exchanged punts and TCU has a long field. Grind it to midfield, stall and punt. More importantly knock over 4 minutes off the clock.

Oregon State fair catch at their own 18 and 4:18 on the clock. 49 total points, if TCU can force a punt they will kill the clock and I'll win the under(50) even after a 35 point first half. Commercial break after the punt, I jump over to the Fresno State/Cincinnati game. Flip back just in time to see the OSU QB chasing the ball towards the end zone and kick it out the back. Safety! 2 points TCU. Total 51, game over! Wager lost.

The first play from scrimmage, in shotgun formation, the ball was snapped over the QB's head and he chased it and kicked it through the end zone rather than attempt to fall on it and take the loss of yards!!

I did hit a small play on Fresno State by themselves and  finished the weekend with 3 of 7 bets as winners and 8-4-1 on the individual selections. Most important, account balance is 4x's the initial deposit. I like the Hokies Monday night.

No comments:

Post a Comment