Dabbling in the odds a bit

It's always easier to tell the story after the fact but you'll just have to trust me this one time. Going forward I'll make it a weekly staple to put my picks out before the weekend begins.

College football got underway this past Thursday so I logged in to the old sportsbook account and made a small deposit to get things started. Looking at the Thursday lines I liked Ohio State at home minus 4 TD's, I liked the Golden Gophers on the road -1.5 and I loved the under on the NIU at Iowa State game. Good MAC team returning 11 starters on defense against a bad BCS conf team smelled like under 51 to me. I added the Gamecocks ML (-700) as a small boost and parlayed the selections. Open the season with a WINNER! All 4 selections good and away we go. Stayed up for the late game on ESPN, USC at Hawaii, bet the 2nd half over at 28.5. BAM! 2nd winner of the night.

Small wager on Friday night took Arizona -16 at Toledo but parlayed it with the over (59). Zona wins by a boatload but Toledo can't score so the total stays under. On to Saturday, out until about 11:15am running errands so I missed the early kickoffs. I looked over the entire day and decided I liked LSU -9 vs UNC, Wisconsin -20 at UNLV and Fresno St -3 at home vs Cincinnati. 1 win, Fresno State, 1 Push, Wisconsin, and 1 Loss, LSU. I had it parlayed so it was only bet lost. After watching the 1st halves of the Michigan and Notre Dame games I made a 2nd half line wager on those two games, Michigan pk em, ND -4. 1 win, Michigan, and 1 loss, Notre Dame.

No betting weekend would be complete without a story of a bad beat so here's mine. I liked the under(50) in the Oregon State vs TCU game. Neutral site but in Texas, TCU built their reputation last season on playing defense. Felt good! 35 points scored in the 1st half. All good feelings gone but having done this before knew that there was a chance this game stalls in the 2nd half and I still have a chance. Bingo! TD early in the 3rd and a 2nd TD to end the 3rd. TCU is up 7 and plays 'D' in the 4th. About 8:30 to go OSU and TCU have exchanged punts and TCU has a long field. Grind it to midfield, stall and punt. More importantly knock over 4 minutes off the clock.

Oregon State fair catch at their own 18 and 4:18 on the clock. 49 total points, if TCU can force a punt they will kill the clock and I'll win the under(50) even after a 35 point first half. Commercial break after the punt, I jump over to the Fresno State/Cincinnati game. Flip back just in time to see the OSU QB chasing the ball towards the end zone and kick it out the back. Safety! 2 points TCU. Total 51, game over! Wager lost.

The first play from scrimmage, in shotgun formation, the ball was snapped over the QB's head and he chased it and kicked it through the end zone rather than attempt to fall on it and take the loss of yards!!

I did hit a small play on Fresno State by themselves and  finished the weekend with 3 of 7 bets as winners and 8-4-1 on the individual selections. Most important, account balance is 4x's the initial deposit. I like the Hokies Monday night.

The "other" two teams

The final two teams have been drafted. I'll start with the slow draft because this is the only time that type of draft and this one in particular will ever be first at anything.

This nightmare started on 8/21 and is a hybrid league of sorts. Its a PPR league where 3 pts are awarded for receptions but RB also get 1 pt for a rush and QB's get a point for completions. Its also a 3 player keeper league. It was a snake draft, I picked 11th(last year's runner up). 16 rounds. I had no 2nd round pick, no 6th, and  no 7th. I had two 9's, two 14's, and 2 15's to make my draft even out. Starting lineup QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, WR/TE, K, DST

My keepers: Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX, Cedric Benson - CIN, Greg Jennings - GB Draft picks in order: Matt Forte - CHI, Hines Ward - PIT, Cadillac Williams - TB, Kellen Winslow, Jr - TB, Donovan McNabb - WAS, Donnie Avery - STL(drafted the morning before he got hurt), Kevin Walter - HOU, Greg Olsen - CHI, Legedu Naanee - SD, Jason Campbell - OAK, Mike Williams - SEA, Todd Heap - BAL, Rashad Jennings - JAX, Josh Morgan - SF, Matt Prater - DEN, San Diego - DST

This nightmare still isn't over but it has lasted 13 days and the sloth of the draft has logged over 62 hours of down time while he was on the clock. My draft time, 59 min 10 sec. Less than an hour on the clock for the entire mess. I hate this format and would suggest jumping from a tall building before getting involved in this type of frustration.

5th and final money league for 2010, yahoo league with a live draft and a 90 second clock. These things go so fast its hard to keep up. We finished in 90 minutes. 15 rounds, re-draft, all TD's worth 6 pts, QB yds 1 pt for every 25 yds RB/WR/TE 1 pt for every 10 yds. Starting lineup QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, DST. I picked 10th in a snake draft.

Draft: Peyton Manning - IND, Rashad Mendenhall - PIT, Greg Jennings - GB, Jahvid Best - DET, Hines Ward - PIT, Jermichael Finley - GB, Steve Breaston - ARI, 49ers DST,(let it be known, my internet went down here and I got stuck with a DST no way I take one here, wanted bernard berrian) Marion Barber - DAL, Louis Murphy - OAK, Tim Hightower - ARI, Laurent Robinson - STL, Todd Heap - BAL, Mike Williams - SEA, Matt Prater - DEN

I only have 1 QB but its Peyton Manning his bye week is 7, I'll pick one up for that week.

NCAA Football Kickoff Weekend

It's baaaaaaack! Thursday night marks the beginning of another wonderful college football season. There are only two things wrong with that, still no playoff system in place and Jim Tressel still has a job. How is it that tOSU has managed to escape any kind of serious sanctions? Tressel ran a dirty program at Youngstown State and it has carried over to tOSU all the way back to the Maurice Clarrett days.

Hopefully the offseason conference realignment that took place will apply more pressure for the NCAA to adopt some form of playoff system to determine a National Champion in football. I think 3 of the bigger stories in college football will be in the SEC. Can Alabama repeat? What will the Gators and Urban Meyer do w/o Tebow? Can LSU be better than a 3 or 4 loss team?

Two other big stories will be Can RichRod get Michigan back on track or does another coaching search begin in Ann Arbor? and Who wins the Pac 10 now that USC has been punished for cheating? Other questions that will get answered, Is this JoePa's final year? Will Florida State return to glory without Bobby Bowden? Is Nebraska really back? Can new coaches win at Kansas and Texas Tech?  Is it Wisconsin's time to shine in the Big 10? Is this really the best team that Northern Illinois has ever had?(threw that in to see who was paying attention) Coach Jerry Kill says this is his best team in his short time at NIU but could it be that they are the best NIU team ever? I was there for 4 years I think they won 4 games.

For me there is only one question about NCAA football that even matters, Can Brian Kelly return the Irish to prominence?  I have been a Notre Dame fan for as long as I can remember and my memories began with the Lou Holtz era. I cheered on the '88 title team I watched as they were screwed out of the '93 title, I saw Lou get run out of town because he was threatening the all time wins record for a ND head coach(politics). I watched the parade of bad coaches(and liars) starring Bob Davie, George O'Leary, Tyrone Willingham, and Charlie Weis. I really thought Charlie was the answer. Now its Brian Kelly's turn. I wasn't a huge fan of the hire but all the news about the program has been positive and hopefully the tarnish has been polished from the golden dome.

The first half of the 2010 schedule should be an indication of how far Coach Kelly and the Irish have come or how much work still needs to be done. The second half of the schedule should be a big confidence boost for the program going forward. I am expecting no worse than 9-3 from the 2010 Irish and hoping big things are on the horizon.  The Irish open at home with Purdue on Saturday.

The season kicks off Thursday night with an ESPN doubleheader and the NIU Huskies traveling to Iowa State which is on TV in Chicagoland on CSN.  It's finally football season!

Fantasy Draft Weekend 2010

This past weekend was a fantasy football junkies ultimate binge. I left home just after 9am on Friday. Made the 2 hour trek towards Chicago to begin Fantasy Draft Weekend 2010. First stop Wrigleyville for some pre-draft cocktails. Hit Merkle's where we recruited for the football pool and then stopped off at Barleycorn's to say "hi" to a few familiar faces.

Draft #1 8pm Friday night, 12 team redraft league, combination scoring. Starters QB RB RB WR WR TE K DST. Roster must have 2 K and 2 DST. I had 6th pick in snake draft. 17 rounds. Roster in order of selection:
Michael Turner - ATL, Miles Austin - DAL, Matt Forte - CHI, Vernon Davis - SF, Dwayne Bowe - KC, Cadillac Williams - TB, Donald Driver - GB, Carson Palmer - CIN, Eddie Royal - DEN, Tim Hightower - ARI, Devin Hester - CHI, Saints DST, Matthew Stafford - DET, Texans DST, Dustin Keller - NYJ, Sebastian Janikowski - OAK, Ryan Succop - KC

Elapsed Draft Time: 3 hrs, Draft Location: Mahoney's Bar, Chicago, IL, All 12 owners in attendance

Draft #2 4pm Saturday, 12 team, 3 player keeper league, combination scoring. Starters QB RB RB WR WR TE K DST. Roster must have 2 K and 2 DST. I had 6th pick in each round and 2 picks in the 11th. 14 rounds. Roster in order of selection:
Keepers: Philip Rivers - SD, Joseph Addai - IND, Chad Ochocinco - CIN (I know they aren't solid, no need to point that out). Draft: LeSean McCoy - PHI, Steve Smith - NYG, Ronnie Brown - MIA, Cadillac Williams - TB, Steve Breaston - ARI, Zach Miller - OAK, Eddie Royal - DEN, Kellen Winslow - TB, Legedu Naanee - SD, Alex Smith - SF, Mason Crosby - GB, Steelers DST, Matt Prater - DEN, Texans DST

Elapsed Draft Time: 2 hours 30 min, Draft Location: Friend's house Plainfield, IL, 5 owners in person, 7 online chat room. I know! How lame that they can't put forth the effort right?

This draft was followed by a marathon Texas Hold 'em game that started at 7:30 pm and ended at 4:30 am. I was on Tilt and steaming early but made a solid comeback after a minor blow up and left the game as the top winner. Thanks boys!

Draft #3 11 am Sunday(doing this one on 3 hrs sleep). 1 player keeper league, combination scoring. Starters QB RB RB WR/TE WR/TE WR/TE K DST Roster must have 3 QB, 5 RB, 6 WR/TE, 2 K 2 DST. I pick 9th in each round. I have no 2nd, 3rd, or 12th. I have two 9th, 14th, and 15th round picks. 17 rounds. Roster in order of selection:
Keeper: Ray Rice - BAL Draft: Ryan Mathews - SD, Dwayne Bowe - KC, Vernon Davis - SF, Hines Ward - PIT, Marion Barber - DAL, Donovan McNabb - WAS, Johnny Knox - CHI, Jay Cutler - CHI, Darren McFadden - OAK, Montario Hardesty - CLE, Sidney Rice - MIN, Zach Miller - OAK, David Garrard - JAX, Matt Prater - DEN, Giants DST, Ryan Succop -KC, Redskins DST

Elapsed Draft Time: 3 hours 20 minutes  Draft Location: West Chicago, IL Park District Community Center  All 12 owners in attendance. Back home by 5:15pm on Sunday.

Final stats: 3 cities, 3 drafts, 48 rounds, 576 picks, 8 hours 50 minutes of draft time and 9 hours of poker with over $1,500 in real money in play.

Still have 2 drafts left, one is a slow draft that gives new meaning to the word slow(it started on 8/21) and the other is 9/2 at 8pm. I'll get those posted after 9/2.

You are on the Clock

This time of year has to rank in my top 3. You can't top the first four days of the NCAA tournament, and Super Bowl Sunday is up there (especially when it moves to the Sunday before President's Day and Monday becomes a day off).

Then comes fantasy football draft weekend. I enjoy the draft as an event almost more than the season itself. I participate in 5 or 6 leagues a year and the leagues I enjoy the most vary based on the draft. I had one that used to always be my favorite league even though I had only 1 title since I joined in 1997. That was a guaranteed full participation live draft, that usually followed with a poker game or at least a good party. Good friends could find the time to gather in one place and spend at least a few hours together. In some cases it might be the only time during the year we'd all be together. Now its hard enough to get people to care enough to check in online, let alone attend in person.

I have a league that was my very first, joined in the Fall of 1996 when the Monday USA Today was the standard for scoring. This league has a mandatory attendance policy for the draft and is my largest league fee of the group. I recently considered that I might have to step down from this league because I moved away from the group. As I reflected on the decision I realized that the mandatory attendance draft is what I enjoyed the most, this league is in its 20th or 21st season and I am in my 15th. Just in the last year we have endured better than 25% turnover and it appears to have been for the betterment of the league.

Finally, the one league I participate in that I am also the commissioner is entering its 10th season. We started with live drafts with mandatory attendance and we had turnover on a yearly basis. The drafts became internet drafts and the league seemed like it could disband at any time. To my surprise the league has actually become stronger and our draft, an event. In this case it is the only time we all get together each year and this year we have an ex-owner coming back to the draft, not as an owner but just to re-connect.

If moving a couple hours away from the group has taught me anything it is that the time we spend together as friends or fantasy owners is important. Email, Facebook, and IM are great tools to stay connected but for a couple hours each August personal interaction goes a long, long way.  If you play fantasy football make a point to enjoy the moment. Happy Football Season!

Call to the Hall, Part 4 of 4 Class of 2014

After the mess that will be the 2013 ballot the 1st time eligible players for 2014 exude class. Could be 4 guys get in, only obstacle would be that some writers who vote take issue with guys getting in on their first try. I think thats dumb if he is good enough to get in then why not vote for him the first time. In this case we know what type of players we are dealing with from the previous year so there really is no reason why one shouldn't vote for the following guys.

**Greg Maddux: The Mad Dog heads up what figures to be a fruitful class, with a Cooperstown-cinch 355 wins to go along with his 3.16 lifetime ERA, four Cy Young Awards and 18 Gold Gloves.

Tom Glavine: Maddux's longtime lefty buddy in Atlanta is right behind the right-hander, with 305 wins, five 20-win seasons, two Cy Youngs, a 3.54 career ERA and a .600 winning percentage. Done deal.


Frank Thomas: He's a member of the 500-homer club, which used to mean automatic enshrinement, so the Big Hurt has a good head start. Then you add the 1,701 RBIs, the .301 career batting average, .419 OBP, .555 slugging and two MVPs, and the picture becomes very clear. If he's not a mortal lock, he's close to it.

Jeff Kent: He hit 377 homers, drove in 1,518 runs, won an MVP, had a legendary competitive scowl and, most important for his Hall of Fame future, he was a second baseman. That means he's practically a given for the Hall. ** 1

Maybe Kent will not get in right away but the other 3 should go on 1st try. The pitchers numbers are no brainers and Thomas should look like a saint compared to most of the HR hitters of the late 90's and early 2000's. He was as consistent as they come  for a period from 1991 - 2000 but for '99 when he went on DL and his HR numbers slipped. He only had 1 year with a BA below .305 and only 1 year where he failed to drive in at least 100 runs. Not to mention the fact that he has managed to steer clear of the steroid scandal.

I'd put Kent in on the simple fact that his numbers are near the top for the position he played and he attempted to put Barry Bonds in his place on at least one memorable occasion.

**1 excerpt taken from Doug Miller/MLB.com full article is here

Call to the Hall, Part 3 of 4 Class of 2013

First time eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2013 gets really, really interesting. We've already seen what happened to Mark McGwire(23.5%, 23.6%, 21.9%, and 23.7%) in his 1st 4 years on the ballot. I talked about what might happen to Palmiero in 2011. Now comes 2013 and the big names are eligible, Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa. Bonds admitted using cream and clear stating he didn't know what it was. Clemens is in a mess of trouble and was just indicted today for lying to congress in 2008 about his drug use. Sosa has been reported to have been one of the 104 players who tested positive in 2003.


The sad thing here is Bonds had the numbers to get in prior to using, his ego got the best of him. He started using once he wasn't getting all the attention, presumably after the McGwire/Sosa HR chase of 1998. Bonds didn't like it that they were getting all the attention and turned to Balco and PED use. His career to that point would have been enough to get him into the HOF. Now based on the way writers have treated McGwire I'm not sure if he will get in.

Before PED's were anything other than backroom chatter in baseball, I compiled a list of current players and whether or not they were HOF worthy. I shared the list with friends and we debated the ones that we didn't unanimously agree on. On that list, next to Clemens name I typed, "could there be a better defintion of a first ballot hall of famer" I call a do over now. His numbers are a fraud! We can't be sure when he started using but its pretty much a given that he used. Assuming his numbers in Boston are legit and maybe in Toronto he was on his way to the HOF. So is it like Bonds, ego got the best of him or more along the lines of everybody else is why not me?  He has a long wait for that phone call welcoming him to Cooperstown.

Sosa. Aside from the fact that he hit 609 HR's and the RBI's associated with those got him to 1667 in his career he never had a 200 hit season. Pre 1998 he never hit more than 40 HR's, never had more than 119 RBI's, and only had 1 year with a BA over .273 (.300 in shortened '94). At that point he was not on his way to the HOF. 1998 (year 10 of career)to 2003 (positive test) 5 of 6 AS games, 1 MVP, never hits less than 40 HR, has 3 of 6 years over .300 BA, has 4 years with 138 RBI or more. 2004 roid rage bites him and Cubs send him away, played 2 more seasons with Baltimore and Texas and missed an entire year in between. Pre '98 he was a good player but not hall worthy, career stats would have most likely got him in but numbers are enhanced by PED's. Keep him out.

Others eligible in 2013 include Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Kenny Lofton, and David Wells. If I knew for sure they were all clean Piazza and Schilling would get my vote. Lofton and Wells would most likely never achieve more than about 55%.