Before we discuss the class of 2012 possibilities I'd like to say that I do NOT like the 5 year wait rule. I think 5 years is too long and people sometimes forget what a player really was during that five years. I would like to see BBWAA change the rule to 3 years. I know part of the reason is that after 5 years there is no chance of player returning to play but given the money these guys make now if they hang it up and stay gone for 3 years they aren't coming back. They make enough that when most say they are officially done then they are done. It could be 3 years from when they file retirement papers with MLB and not just 3 years from their last season. Obviously Pedro Martinez didn't play this year but he isn't retired either so his 3 years haven't started yet even though he hasn't played.
Class of 2012 first time eligible players of significant value, Bernie Williams, Javy Lopez, and Vinny Castilla. I say no to Vinny Castilla he was a good ball player but what of his stats are inflated by playing 81 games a year in Coors field and this isn't the Hall of Good. He had a nice career, made a good living playing a game and has nothing to be ashamed of but not a hall of famer in my opinion.
Javy Lopez, my first reaction was maybe. I went out and did some research and realized he may never get more than 50% of the vote in his best year. Javy benefits mostly from his run as the catcher of the Braves of the 90's and his individual numbers don't do enough on their own over the life of his career to put him in the hall. He isn't even top 3 of his era. Piazza, Pudge Rodriguez, Posada. I'll say Javy is a no.
Brings me to Bernie Williams. First thing popped into my head when his name was mentioned was no. Then I read this, 17 seasons and hit .297 for his career with 287 homers, 1,257 RBIs, four Gold Gloves and five All-Star Game appearances. OK, maybe I should at least consider him. Then I read this, Williams still owns postseason records for extra-base hits, doubles and RBIs. Consistent and clutch and has 4 World Series rings. I'd say Bernie Baseball gets in. He won't be first ballot but he won't wait 9 years like Andre Dawson did. Dawson's first year on ballot was 2002, he received 45.3% of the vote. I'd guess Bernie gets just over 50% to start and is in by his 4th or 5th try.
Unless Bagwell gets in on his 2nd try, the 2012 class may be empty. Assuming that Alomar and Blyleven go in in 2011, Jack Morris, Barry Larkin, and Lee Smith are the remaining 2010 runners up. Would be a large 2 year jump if any of them went in 2012 so it may be Bagwell or bust.
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